Data insights: March 2026 EBT theft trends

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Key findings#key-findings

• New Jersey had the highest theft rate in February (0.30%), largely driven by skimming at small, independent retailers. 64% of the 1,749 NJ users liquidated in February shopped at one of 116 stores with elevated future liquidation victim rates.
• Virginia and Maryland, which saw significant skimming at specific retail locations in January, saw those patterns largely subside in February. Virginia’s rate fell from 0.27% to 0.20%; Maryland’s from 0.33% to 0.22%.
• Nebraska and Arkansas continue to see elevated theft, though both saw decreases since last month. Nebraska declined from 0.47% to 0.26%; Arkansas from 0.27% to 0.21%.

Propel’s theft detection capabilities#propels-theft-detection-capabilities

Propel serves over 5 million EBT cardholders nationwide who use our app to manage their benefits every month. We analyze transaction and customer-reported data to identify emerging theft patterns through a two-step detection process. First, we identify retailers with unusually high rates of transactions flagged as "unrecognized" by Propel users. These are retailers where stolen benefits appear to be drained or liquidated. Second, we identify skimmer locations by analyzing victims’ shopping patterns in the 8-12 weeks prior to their card being liquidated.

Our insights are intended to provide a snapshot of emerging trends in EBT theft. We generate these analyses early in the month, when theft activity typically peaks following SNAP benefit deposits. Our data reflects real theft activity, but may show a slight upward bias since cardholders are more likely to check the app after experiencing theft. Given the rapidly evolving nature of EBT theft, our insights represent a current snapshot rather than a comprehensive assessment.

Recent theft patterns and spikes#recent-theft-patterns-and-spikes

New Jersey had the highest theft rate in February, largely attributable to skimming at small retailers. Virginia and Maryland, which had significant skimming at specific retail chains in January, saw those patterns largely subside in February. Nebraska and Arkansas continue to see elevated theft, though both saw decreases since last month.

Nebraska declined significantly from its January peak (from 0.47% to 0.26%) but remains the second-highest rate state. Retailer data is limited in Nebraska so we cannot attribute this theft to specific stores.

New Jersey skimming at small, independent retailers#new-jersey-skimming-at-small-independent-retailers

Based on geographical patterns, New Jersey theft seems to be the result of skimming — unrecognized transaction rates are concentrated in northern counties close to New York City.

Unlike in Virginia and Maryland, where specific retail chains were the primary skimming vector, New Jersey skimming is concentrated at smaller retailers.

Virginia and Maryland skimming activity largely subsided#virginia-and-maryland-skimming-activity-largely-subsided

Virginia’s overall theft rate remained elevated at 0.20% (down from 0.27%), but liquidation from cardholders skimmed at specific retail locations has slowed dramatically.

Maryland similarly improved: the theft rate fell from 0.33% to 0.22% and liquidation is no longer strongly tied to specific retail chains.

Arkansas theft continues, but slows#arkansas-theft-continues-but-slows

Arkansas continued to see elevated theft, though its monthly rate fell from 0.27% to 0.21%. Fraud in neighboring states near the Arkansas border (e.g., Coahoma and Quitman counties in Mississippi) remains elevated, consistent with the cross-border skimming pattern noted in previous months, but no specific skimmers could be identified.

Ongoing support#ongoing-support

Propel is committed to supporting state and federal agencies in protecting SNAP recipients from EBT theft. For questions about our methodology or further analysis, please contact gov@joinpropel.com.