Data insights: November 2025 EBT theft trends

Key findings#key-findings

New York and Pennsylvania made up about half of all stolen EBT dollars in October, with rising fraud and complex in-state activity that makes it hard to pinpoint skimmers.
Arkansas saw a month-to-month increase in theft, mostly in a few eastern counties, though levels are still lower than this summer and no big skimmers stand out.
The government shutdown likely disrupted theft early in the month since unpredictable SNAP deposits also made timing harder for thieves.
Maryland continued to see elevated cash benefit theft, extending a trend flagged last month.

Propel’s theft detection capabilities#propels-theft-detection-capabilities

Propel serves over 5 million EBT cardholders nationwide who use our app to manage their benefits every month. We analyze transaction and customer-reported data to identify emerging theft patterns through a two-step detection process. First, we identify retailers with unusually high rates of transactions flagged as "unrecognized" by Propel users. These are retailers where stolen benefits appear to be drained or liquidated. Second, we identify skimmer locations by analyzing victims’ shopping patterns in the 8-12 weeks prior to their card being liquidated.

Our insights are intended to provide a snapshot of emerging trends in EBT theft. We generate these analyses early in the month, when theft activity typically peaks following SNAP benefit deposits. Our data reflects real theft activity, but may show a slight upward bias since cardholders are more likely to check the app after experiencing theft. Given the rapidly evolving nature of EBT theft, our insights represent a current snapshot rather than a comprehensive assessment.

Recent theft patterns and spikes#recent-theft-patterns-and-spikes

New York and Pennsylvania continue to account for a high volume of theft due to their large populations and above-average theft rates. Arkansas saw an increase in per user theft while Maryland saw a continuation of cash theft flagged last month. SNAP delays caused by the government shutdown likely disrupted early-month theft patterns – if deposits were unpredictable for cardholders, they were likely unpredictable for thieves as well.

U.S. map — Figure 2. Fraction of transactions marked as unrecognized for each county. Based on transactions from October 1 - November 10.

High-volume theft in New York and Pennsylvania#high-volume-theft-in-new-york-and-pennsylvania

New York, Pennsylvania, and California all saw increases in fraudulent transactions from September to October. New York and Pennsylvania had the highest fraudulent transaction and stolen dollar volume both because of their large populations and increased theft rates month over month. Together, they accounted for half of fraudulent dollars in October.

Bar chart — Figure 3. Dollar volume of fraudulent transactions by victim state from September 1 - October 31.

New York and Pennsylvania have some of the highest rates of in-state theft. Liquidations from many states take place at retailers with reported locations in the New York City and Philadelphia areas (though these may not be actual store locations and instead be criminals using stolen FNS numbers). This can make skimmer identification in New York and Pennsylvania difficult – it’s hard to tell if a user was skimmed at one in-state store and liquidated at another or if they were liquidated at multiple in-state stores.

Arkansas rate increase#arkansas-rate-increase

Arkansas saw an increased rate of theft from September to October, though it still had a lower rate than its peak in July. Arkansas regularly sees spikes in theft at the beginning of the month when benefits are distributed.

Line graph — Figure 5. Fraction of unrecognized cash transactions in Arkansas vs. other states.

This pattern isn’t consistent with a statewide card compromise, as not all counties have elevated theft rates and elevated theft rates are concentrated in certain areas, particularly the eastern border. No high volume skimmers can be identified with confidence, however.

Arkansas map — Figure 6. Unrecognized cash transaction rate by county in Arkansas from October 1 - November 10.

Falling theft in Mississippi#falling-theft-in-mississippi

Theft in Mississippi spiked in early August and remained elevated throughout the next two months. In our August and early September report, we identified skimming at multiple stores of the same retailer in Mississippi, Indiana, and Alabama. 91% of Mississippi users with stolen benefits from August 1 - Sep 7 shopped at one of 20 stores (all of which had future victim rates of 15%+).

Our September and early October report showed a slowing, but still present, liquidation trend. Some of the same retailer's stores identified in August had high future victim rates, but fewer stores seemed to be skimming overall.

This implies a surge of skimming in the summer; card info obtained then was used to liquidate benefits in August and September, but theft has since petered out. The figure above shows an 80% decrease in liquidated benefits in Mississippi from September to October.

Ongoing support#ongoing-support

Propel is committed to supporting state and federal agencies in protecting SNAP recipients from EBT theft. For questions about our methodology or further analysis, please contact gov@joinpropel.com.