Deep Dive

Data insights: May EBT theft trends

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Summary

Propel's fraud detection system identified a few shifts in EBT theft activity in early May 2025. While Georgia and Alabama continued to experience high theft rates, a few other states saw notable increases and spikes.

Propel's real-time fraud detection system has identified shifts in EBT theft activity across multiple states in early May 2025. Key findings:

  • Georgia and Alabama maintain some of the highest theft rates nationwide
  • Notable increases were detected in Indiana, South Carolina, and Delaware
  • In Utah and New York, increased theft rates appear to be driven by skimming operations
  • In Alabama, a statewide pattern of theft persists even as targeted skimming operations emerge

Propel’s fraud detection capabilities#propels-fraud-detection-capabilities

Propel serves over 5 million EBT cardholders nationwide who use our app to manage their benefits every month. We analyze transaction and customer-reported data to identify emerging fraud patterns. Our two-step detection process identifies:

  1. Liquidation sites: We identify retailers with unusually high rates of transactions flagged as "unrecognized" by Propel users. These are locations where stolen benefits are being drained or liquidated.
  2. Skimmer locations: We then identify retailers where card information was likely compromised by analyzing victims’ shopping patterns in the 6-8 weeks prior to their card being liquidated.

Recent theft patterns and spikes#recent-theft-patterns-and-spikes

Geographic mobility in theft patterns#geographic-mobility-in-theft-patterns

Theft activity across states shifts from month to month. While Georgia and Alabama have consistently ranked among the top states for theft in 2025, there were notable increases in rates of unrecognized transactions in Indiana, South Carolina, and Delaware in April.

Figure 1

Moreover, theft activity is typically highest at the start of the month, immediately following benefit deposits to recipient accounts. While overall theft has declined since January 2025, early May data reveals concerning spikes in Utah, Alabama, and New York (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Utah: Clear evidence of skimmers#utah-clear-evidence-of-skimmers

In Utah, theft rates have spiked recently. Victim benefits are being liquidated through point-of-sale devices seemingly located in Philadelphia, New York, and Chicago – though it is difficult to discern where these devices are actually located. Regardless, this pattern indicates a sophisticated interstate criminal operation.

We believe the vast majority of recent theft in Utah is due to skimming for a few reasons. First, the highest rates of unrecognized transactions were concentrated in Salt Lake County (Figure 3) – a classic skimming pattern. Second, 80% of the 86 victims whose accounts were liquidated out-of-state had shopped at one of the suspected skimmer locations in March-April.

Figure 3

Alabama: Mostly statewide theft patterns#alabama-mostly-statewide-theft-patterns

For over a year, Alabama has shown a distinctive statewide theft pattern with sharp border boundaries. In early May, however, theft was geographically concentrated in Selma and Tuscaloosa, indicating new skimming operations (Figure 4). In both cities, our analysis identified several stores where more than 10% of customers who shopped during March and April were subsequently liquidated in May.

While this localized skimming activity represents a concerning new development, we believe that the majority of Alabama's theft still likely stems from broader vulnerabilities, given that Selma and Tuscaloosa alone cannot account for the state's high overall theft rates seen in Figure 1.

Figure 4


New York: Growing skimming activity

Theft in New York quadrupled in early May: our detection model estimated $1.5M in stolen benefits in just the first two weeks of the month. While New York is not among the states with the highest theft rates nationwide, the total volume of theft is high due to its large population.

Most theft in New York appears to be due to skimming, with activity concentrated in the Bronx. About 60% of 1,500 out-of-state liquidation victims had recently shopped at suspected in-state skimmer locations, suggesting sophisticated criminal operations similar to those observed in Utah.

This data reveals coordinated fraudulent operations targeting SNAP recipients through different mechanisms. It may warrant:

  • Alerts to affected areas. Warn SNAP recipients in the identified states about the heightened risk. Propel can contact cardholders who use the Propel app.
  • Differentiated response strategies. In states with high skimming activity, focus on physical inspection of POS devices at suspicious retailers. In states with statewide patterns, investigate potential vulnerabilities.
  • Law enforcement coordination. This analysis offers actionable intelligence for targeted investigations of both specific retailers and statewide systems.
  • Ongoing monitoring. Propel can provide updates as patterns shift or new hotspots emerge.

Next steps#next-steps

Propel is committed to supporting state and federal agencies in protecting SNAP recipients from EBT theft. For questions about our methodology or further analysis, please reach out.

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